Skill lifecycles: How to predict and prepare for skill obsolescence

If there's one thing the dial-up modems of the past have taught us, it's that technology evolves at lightning speed. One minute you're patiently waiting for that familiar screech to connect you to the internet, and the next, you're streaming movies in 4K with barely a loading bar in sight. This rapid pace of change isn't limited to our internet connections. It's actually transforming the very skills that fuel the future of work.

The rise of AI is a prime example of this transformation. According to a 2023 study by Pluralsight, 81% of executives have already deployed or plan to deploy AI-related technologies in their organizations. This widespread adoption of AI is not just changing the way we work, but also reshaping the skills needed to succeed in the modern workplace.

But here's the catch: while organizations are eager to embrace AI, they often overlook the crucial aspect of skill development. The same study reveals that a staggering 90% of executives lack a complete understanding of their teams' AI skills and proficiency. The disconnect between technological adoption and employee readiness highlights the growing challenge of skill obsolescence.

Just as we adapted to broadband and Wi-Fi, we can adapt to the demands of an AI-powered world. The key is to understand the concept of "skill lifecycles" – the predictable stages of emergence, growth, maturity, and decline that skills go through. By recognizing where your skills are in their lifecycle, you can anticipate changes, invest in relevant training, and stay ahead of the curve. But how do you do that exactly?

What is a skill lifecycle?

Just like products, skills have a lifecycle. They emerge, gain traction, reach peak demand, and eventually decline in relevance. Understanding these stages is crucial for anticipating skill obsolescence.

• Emergence: A new skill appears on the scene, often driven by technological advancements or evolving industry needs. Think of the early days of social media marketing or the introduction of cloud computing.

• Growth: The skill gains popularity and demand increases as more industries and businesses recognize its value. Training programs and certifications emerge to meet the growing need.

• Maturity: The skill becomes widely adopted and essential for many roles. Competition for skilled professionals intensifies.

• Decline: The skill's relevance diminishes as new technologies or approaches emerge. Demand decreases, and professionals with only this skill may struggle to find suitable roles.

Several factors influence how long a skill remains relevant. One is technological advancements, a primary driver of skill obsolescence. Automation, AI, and machine learning are rapidly replacing routine tasks and even some complex ones.

Another one is economic shifts, which include economic trends, such as globalization and outsourcing – factors that can impact the demand for certain skills. Changing industry needs are another crucial factor as well. Changes in consumer preferences, regulatory landscapes, and competitive pressures can all influence the skills required in an industry.

Examples of skill lifecycles include:

• Programming Languages: The rise and fall of programming languages like COBOL or Perl illustrate how skill lifecycles operate in the tech world.

• Manufacturing Skills: The shift from manual labor to automated production lines has led to a decline in demand for certain manufacturing skills while increasing the need for those who can operate and maintain advanced machinery.

• Marketing Skills: Traditional marketing skills are being replaced by digital marketing expertise, including SEO, social media marketing, and content creation.

Read More: Bridging Singapore's cyber skills gap

How to predict skill obsolescence

To predict which skills are at risk of becoming obsolete, it's essential to stay informed about industry trends. This can be achieved by reading industry publications and reports, attending industry conferences and events, and following thought leaders and experts.

Analyzing job market data, such as reviewing job postings, utilizing labor market databases, and monitoring salary trends, can also provide valuable insights into current and future skill demands.

Additionally, conducting skill gap analyses within organizations can help identify potential areas of skill obsolescence by comparing employees' current skills to those required for future success, analyzing performance reviews for recurring skill gaps, and seeking external feedback from clients, partners, or industry experts.

Several tools and resources can assist in predicting skill obsolescence, including online skill assessment platforms, as well as industry reports from organizations like Gartner, Deloitte, or McKinsey, and labor market databases that track real-time labor market information and skill trends.

By actively monitoring these signals, individuals and organizations can gain valuable foresight into the skills that are most likely to become obsolete and take proactive steps to prepare for the future.

Read More: How to map out digital skill gaps in your team

Preparing for obsolescence with continuous learning

In today's rapidly evolving job market, continuous learning is crucial. This can be achieved through formal education, such as pursuing advanced degrees or certifications, or through microlearning, which utilizes online platforms and resources for efficient upskilling. On-the-job training, including mentorship or job shadowing, offers practical experience in emerging areas.

Developing adaptability and transferable skills is equally important. This involves focusing on essential skills like communication, problem-solving, and critical thinking, which are valuable across various industries. Identifying how existing skills can be applied to new roles and embracing challenging projects that require learning and adaptation are also key.

Cultivating a growth mindset is essential for viewing skill development as an ongoing journey, embracing setbacks as learning experiences, and believing in one's ability to acquire new skills.

Building a personal learning network through attending industry events, engaging in online communities, and seeking mentors can provide valuable support and insights for navigating skill obsolescence.

The future of work is dynamic, and those who thrive will be those who embrace change and commit to continuous learning. By understanding skill lifecycles, predicting skill obsolescence, and proactively developing in-demand skills, professionals can navigate the evolving landscape with confidence and position themselves for success in the jobs of tomorrow.