What will be the impact of AI on workers in 6 ASEAN countries?

Over the next decade, innovations in digital technology will present vast opportunities to ASEAN economies to boost their productivity and prosperity. However, at the same time, the digital transformation will also mean that many of the region’s workers face considerable upheaval.

A report by Cisco and Oxford Economics explores what the next decade of technological change will mean for ASEAN workers. The report has leveraged data on 433 occupations across 21 industries to model the impact of these technology adoption patterns on the 275 million full-time equivalent (FTE) workers employed in the six largest ASEAN economies (ASEAN-6) by 2028.

The model finds that, by 2028, 28 million fewer workers across these economies — more than 10 percent of the current ASEAN-6 workforce — will be required to produce the same level of output as today. The bulk of these “displaced workers” are located in ASEAN-6’s largest labour markets, with 9.5 million based in Indonesia, 7.5 million in Vietnam, 4.9 million in Thailand, and 4.5 million in the Philippines.

Across all ASEAN-6 economies, our model predicts that technological displacement will occur most intensively in the agriculture sector, affecting 13 percent of the workforce, which equates to around 10 million FTE jobs. In the manufacturing sector, also a major employer across the ASEAN-6, technology is projected to displace up to 10 percent of the workforce over the next decade, equating to over four million FTE jobs.

Here is a key analysis shared below on the basis of jobs created versus displaced in each country.

Impact of AI on jobs in Indonesia

In Indonesia, 2 million existing roles will disappear from the labor market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

• Agriculture: 3.5 Mn displaced (10.4% of workforce)
• Wholesale & retail: 1.6 Mn displaced (6.6% of workforce)
• Manufacturing: 1.5 Mn displaced (8.4% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

• Wholesale & retail: 2.3 Mn jobs created (9.2% of workforce)
• Agriculture: 1.8 Mn jobs created (5.3% of workforce)
• Manufacturing: 1.4 Mn jobs created (7.9% of workforce)

Impact of AI on jobs in Malaysia

250,000 existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

• Manufacturing: 230k displaced (8.2% of workforce)
• Agriculture: 180k displaced (11% of the workforce)
• Wholesale & retail: 175k displaced (6.3% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

• Wholesale & retail: 280k jobs created (9.9% of workforce)
• Manufacturing: 185k jobs created (6.7% of workforce)
• Hotels & restaurants: 120k jobs created (8.3% of workforce)

 Impact of AI on jobs in Philippines

1.1 million existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

• Agriculture: 1.2 Mn displaced (12.4% of workforce)
• Wholesale & retail: 880k displaced (8.5% of workforce)
• Manufacturing: 380k displaced (10% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

• Wholesale & retail: 1.3 Mn jobs created (12.5% of workforce)
• Transport: 490k jobs created (13.2% of workforce)
• Construction: 460k jobs created (11.9% of workforce)

Impact of AI on jobs in Singapore

85,000 existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

• Wholesale & retail: 80k displaced (19.8% of workforce)
•  Manufacturing: 55k displaced (22.1% of workforce)
• Transport: 50k displaced (23.8% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

• Wholesale & retail: 100k jobs created (24.6% of workforce)
• Manufacturing: 70k jobs created (28.2% of workforce)
• Finance & Insurance: 60k jobs created (27.6% of workforce)

 Impact of AI on jobs in Thailand

1.3 million existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

• Agriculture: 1.7 Mn displaced (14.5% of workforce)
• Manufacturing: 840k displaced (11.6% of workforce)
• Wholesale & retail: 760k displaced (10.4% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

• Manufacturing: 1.2 Mn jobs created (16.3% of workforce)
• Wholesale & retail: 910k jobs created (12.4% of workforce)
• Hotels & restaurants: 550k jobs created (17.4% of workforce)

 Impact of AI on jobs in Vietnam

1.8 million existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

• Agriculture: 3.4 Mn displaced (17.1% of workforce)
• Manufacturing: 1.3m displaced (13.2% of workforce)
• Wholesale & retail: 840k displaced (10.9% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

• Manufacturing: 1.7  Mn jobs created (8.5% of workforce)
• Wholesale & retail: 1.6 Mn jobs created (16.4% of workforce)
• Hotels & restaurants: 1.3 Mn jobs created (16.8% of workforce)